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By newman1979 (anonymous) | Posted February 27, 2007 at 11:42:32
The Nov. 2006 EIA monthly numbers show that 06 crude and concentrate world production is down around 160,000 b/d. we know that KSA is down in Dec. yoy. Add The North Sea, Norway and the UK and we can estimate down 700,000 b/d. Mexico has reported being down over 400,000 b/d yoy. Dec 05 was a big month and IMO Dec 06 will be at least 800,000 b/d below Dec 05. Thus for the calendar year 06 will be about 200,000 b/d less than 05 IMO. Iraqi declines in Jan 07 to 1.1 m/b/d from 1.6 in 06 plus a continuation of the above allows a credible estimate of Jan 07 being down over 1 m/b/d from 06. The official report is always two months after the fact. So far, the EIA data shows the peak of crude on a monthly basis as May 05.
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