Comment 51288

By Undustrial (registered) - website | Posted November 09, 2010 at 07:58:30

A peak in 2005/2006 is fairly debatable, but dramatically rising demand for oil over the last decade? That's a little harder. It goes along with all the data we've got in terms of economics or engineering. Not that you "can't" question it, but it's gonna take some pretty impressive data to convince most of us.

Even after the economic crash, oil prices have come nowhere near settling back into their historic lows, and are now now once again rising. How exactly do price and production rise so much without rising demand? Populations are growing, economies are growing, and things really aren't getting much more fuel efficient (at least, not enough to compensate for China). The recession may have set all forms of demand back temporarily, but not in any kind of sustainable way.

I don't actually believe that production CAN'T rise after a "peak", and I don't think that was Hubbert's intention. If everyone went out and started digging six days a week, it would certainly be doable. The point is that the price will go up exponentially. Ten or twenty years ago, a price increase of even a few dollars per barrel brought a massive influx of new oil - today an extra $50/barrel hasn't. Given that we're still around four times the price that oil was a decade ago, despite the worst recession since the 1930s, I'd say that the numbers fit pretty well.

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