Raise the Hammer

Voter turnout will always "reach new levels." It's a question of where those levels are. With advance voting up 20%, it looks like we're bound for better turnout than in the last election – and if increase total 2006 turnout (117,227) by 20% and you end up with a 4.8% increase over the gate numbers for the 2003 contest (125,239). Not sure how much the population of eligible voters has increased since then.

2006 ward turnout in descending order of votes supplied:

Ward 08: 14,051 votes (11.98% of total)
Ward 07: 13,908 votes (11.86% of total)
Ward 06: 10,639 votes (11.86% of total)
Ward 05: 9,135 votes (9.08% of total)
Ward 12: 8,575 votes (7.31% of total)
Ward 01: 8,060 votes (7.31% of total)
Ward 04: 7,940 votes (7.31% of total)
Ward 13: 7,768 votes (6.77% of total)
Ward 11: 7,738 votes (6.60% of total)
Ward 10: 7,705 votes (6.57% of total)
Ward 09: 6,665 votes (5.69% of total)
Ward 15: 6,216 votes (5.30% of total)
Ward 03: 6,139 votes (5.24% of total)
Ward 02: 5,991 votes (5.11% of total)
Ward 14: 4,214 votes (3.59% of total)

Number of Candidates, 2006 vs 2010: 57 vs 70

Ward 01: from 3 to 3
Ward 02: from 4 to 19
Ward 03: from 2 to 6
Ward 04: from 4 to 3
Ward 05: from 2 to 4

Lower city candidates, 2006 vs 2010: 15 vs 35

Ward 06: from 2 to 6
Ward 07: from 8 to 4
Ward 08: from 4 to 4
Ward 09: from 2 to 4
Ward 10: from 3 to 3
Ward 11: from 3 to 3
Ward 12: from 5 to 2
Ward 13: from 4 to 5
Ward 14: from 2 to 1
Ward 15: from 2 to 3

Suburban candidates, 2006 vs 2010: 35 vs 35

Number of wards where number of candidates increased vs 2006: 7.
Number of wards where number of candidates decreased or remained level compared to 2006: 8

Citywide, we've seen a 20% increase in advance voters vs 2006. Coincidentally, there has been a 20% increase in total number of candidates vs 2006. Ward 2 and 3 are responsible for adding 19 voters to the mix – about two-thirds of the city's gross uptick of council candidates. Ward 2 candidates increased by 500% vs 2006. Ward 3 candidates increased by 300% vs 2006. Mayoral candidates increased by 200% vs 2006. Any guesses as to how much of an increase in voter turnout we'll see in the lower city?