Comment 26552

By A Smith (anonymous) | Posted September 12, 2008 at 21:38:23

Block43, you make a great point. There are likely hundreds factors that affect our weather/climate and each of these factors, including solar activity, but not limited to, are extremely unpredictable.

However, in order to get an accurate view of the big picture, each and every individual variable has to be predictable as well.

Assuming this is possible, further knowledge of how each and every individual variable interacts with one another is also necessary.

In this way, knowing what will happen in the short run is a necessity, since it is the near term changes that will ultimately affect what happens in the long run.

Failure to be able to predict the short term, therefore, casts doubt on the accuracy of inputs that what will be used to determine what happens in the long term.

To argue against this position implies that you can know the winner of the Super Bowl, without first knowing who is even playing in the game. Possible, but highly improbable.

Highwater, I am sure you are correct with regards to what you have observed, and I have also observed interesting changes in the environment.

What I haven't observed , however, is any evidence that makes me think the world is in the grips of run away heat build up. Especially when recent evidence points to the contrary.

To keep all of this in perspective, one should recall that thirty years ago, scientists thought the world was headed for another Ice Age.

Apparently they were a little off the mark back then, so I tend to think they may be overshooting a little bit now as well.

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