Comment 120207

By JPDanko (registered) - website | Posted September 30, 2016 at 15:36:21

The proposal to include this on the ballot in the 2018 municipal election is interesting.

In my experience there are very small numbers either for or against LRT - while the vast majority of public opinion on LRT is either total apathy (don't care - the city is going to do what the city is going to do) or extremely fluid - meaning if you lead with a positive opinion on LRT you're likely to get a pro LRT opinion back. If you lead with something negative, you'll get an anti LRT opinion back.

Waiting until 2018 gives the anti-LRT crowd two whole years of bad press towards LRT - its doesn't matter if its true or not - only if it generates a sustained negative emotion and uncertainty towards the project. Lumping it in with a general election also removes the pro-LRT side's ability to really mobilize if necessary - splitting resources from election campaigning to LRT campaigning. It also ensures the maximum number of anti-LRT voters are mobilized (older people who traditionally vote in municipal elections) vs pro LRT voters who would likely be very mobilized to vote in a one-off referendum (with an online ballot?) if not in a general election (for example McMaster University students could probably single-handedly swing a referendum vote if there was an online ballot).

Since incumbent Councillors are pretty much untouchable in a municipal election, I strongly suspect that the results of the referendum would mirror the opinion of each individual councillor - the only question is if two years is enough time to generate and grow enough bad emotion to swing two or three fence sitting councillors to the anti side.

My cynical side says that it probably would be...

Structural engineer & photographer.

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