Comment 104904

By DiIanni (registered) | Posted September 27, 2014 at 09:41:20

Jason, this is me. It may be a bit early for such a dramatic move. However, the poll is interesting from a number of perspectives. It seems to confirm the information Dreschel mused about several columns ago about private polls. It certainly confirms the numbers in a poll that had my name in it when I was contemplating another run. Fred had strong recognition and approvals; Clark and McHattie had very low numbers in each category. The crucial weeks are coming up. The ballot box question isn't clearly defined yet, even though Brad is trying hard for it to be LRT and the media is supporting this debate because well, they want a debate. As important as this issue is, very few elections in my estimation are won by people who want to 'stop' something from happening. They are usually won by people who want to make something happen. That is why Brad is coupling the LRT debate with an 'affordability' argument. His problem is that he has flip-flopped on the issue so it feeds into the 'opportunistic/dirty-tricks/integrity' theme that is emerging.

As for the large undecideds? It shouldn't come as a surprise that the number is as large as it is this far away from election day. However, again experience tells me that the undecided vote will eventually split out in more or less the same way as the decided vote indicates which means that the largest share should go to Fred.

However, now is the time for all campaigns to focus. Brian is playing catch up and if he thinks he will gain most of the undecideds, it will be miraculous for him to do so. Not impossible, but highly improbable.

Brad will need to expand his base of support but unless he can convince people that he isn't as Brian said, "Machiavellian" it will be hard for him to do so. Not impossible but very improbable.

Fred needs to maintain momentum, not make mistakes, spend money wisely. Stay on message and bring it home.

I will do my best to enjoy the race. I love politics. And of course help Fred Eisenberger win. He really is the best choice.

Thanks for asking, Jason.

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