Raise the Hammer hasn't published any peak oil related articles recently, but we continue to follow the subject in case any new developments indicate the need to revise our conclusions.
Well, a new development indicates the need to revise our conclusions.
The Oil Drum, a gushing wellhead of oil-industry related news and analysis that has quickly become one of the best resources on the net for peak oil researchers, recently published a new report suggesting that the situation may actually be considerably worse than even peak-oilers expected.
As the article and associated comment thread suggest, oil exporting countries that pass their production peaks are losing oil production at approximately the rates predicted by Hubbert's model, but reducing their exports much more rapidly.
As the report's author, Jeffrey Brown, an independent oil geologist based in Dallas, explains that he and another researcher are working:
on projections for future production and exports by at least the top five net exporters (that accounted for half of world net exports in 2006). The HL [Hubbert Linearization] based projections will not be a pretty picture.
In any case, for the top five, if you assume a 5 percent decline in production (the top four showed about a 4.4 percent decline from 2005 to 2006), and a 5 percent rate of increase in consumption (which is below their 2005 to 2006 increase), net exports by the top five would initially decline at about 10 percent per year. Note that in later years, the decline rate, based on the Export Land Model, tends to increase. Based on the 5 percent/5 percent assumptions, net exports by the top five would be at about zero in 14 years. [emphasis added]
In other words: things are about to get really bad.
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