Raise the Hammer

“A research team at University College, London, had analyzed – for London Transport and Britain’s Department of the Environment, Transport, and the Regions – sixty cases, worldwide, in which roads had been closed or their carrying capacity reduced. “

http://goo.gl/YGhqF

The study in question is S. Cairns, C. Hass-Klau, and P.B. Goodwin: Traffic Impact of Highway Capacity Reductions: Assessment of the Evidence. Landor Publications, London, 1998

In a 2002 follow-up, Dr. Cairns notes that the studies now include 72 cases in total:

“This research has recently been revisited, 12 new case studies have been added, and a survey of professional opinion has been undertaken, to see whether professionals were convinced by the earlier work. The main conclusion from the follow-up work is that the original results were robust – traffic levels can decrease as a result of well implemented schemes, not only because people may change how they choose to travel, but also because they make broader changes to their lifestyles (such as altering where they carry out activities and how often they make a journey, consolidating trips, occasionally working from home, car-sharing – right through to changing where they live or where they work). These changes, collectively, can result in reduced car use. The study also highlighted that patterns of travel are far more flexible than people traditionally assume. For example, according to surveys of peak-hour traffic on a major commuter route in Leeds, only about half of the cars are the same on two successive days.”

Given the generalizations we all make about traffic, that last line is fairly interesting.

Also, for all of these studies, that – with the notable exception of London’s congestion charge – official policy in the UK has apparently tended to tilt in the other direction.

“Given such evidence, it is disappointing that the Government’s first statutory progress report in response to the Road Traffic Reduction (National Targets) Act 1998 was simply entitled Tackling Congestion and Pollution, and that the ‘Ten Year Plan’ for transport investment is based on a scenario of 17 per cent traffic growth.”

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