Comment 51821

By bobinnes (registered) - website | Posted November 18, 2010 at 00:55:49

Hi Ryan. The best source for real inflation/unemployment/GDP data i'm aware of is

http://www.shadowstats.com/

Once one lets this reality sink in, it changes 'everything', at least in the economics & political department. I no longer trust our officials to tell the truth.

The elastic thing is more of a consideration of marginal production. If in 1920, one wanted a little extra oil, there wouldn't be much penalty but if one wanted humungous extra, one would have to pay dearly. At any given point of time, production can't be increased immediately, absent idle capacity. Therefore prices would rise in proportion to the stress put on the then existing system in real time. WW2 might be the best example of this.

Whether we have reached peak oil exactly or not quite is of little interest to me as I believe we are about to be hit with a dollar crashing issue far sooner than an oil rising issue. It may be quite possible for us to see a rising nominal price while the Arabs or Chinese or Russians see a falling real price. Real as defined possibly by gold, the 5000 year old monetary system everybody seems to have forgotten about till recently. Such is the fruit of our profligate ways. As long as we insist on importing so many Chinese goods, we fuel up their drivers while hobbling ours, ie many Canadians will find it necessary to quit driving (so much) while Chinese enjoy their first car. China is now producing more cars and growing by something like 50% a year if that can even be imagined. So even if oil hasn't yet peaked, even if production rises a few %/yr, it wont make much difference to that kind of new demand. Somebody will use up all that fuel, it just wont be us unless we get a lot smarter - which is what we are all hoping for, yes?

Frogs, the pot is getting warm.

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