Raise the Hammer

I was going to do some big diatribe about the crazier leading the crazy (although I will still point out that Monckton did once write a paper titled "The Myth of Heterosexual AIDS" in which he advocated the quarantining of all carriers of HIV/AIDS). Or you can watch him be crazy on film, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=stij8sUyb...
The quick dissection is that

a) Monckton is not a scientist, or a statistician. Which is fine, except he pretends that he is, which isn't fine. For example, in his M model of climate change he treats the Earth as a black body to predict radiative heat. If you don't know what that means, that's okay, neither does Monckton.

b) he selectively chooses four localized studies that match his viewpoint (in September he's down to three). He also at no point (that I ever came across) justifies his selections. Compare that to GISS, http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

c) (and this is my favourite) he resets the IPCC model, using the original 1990 predictive model (which has been updated 3 times since then, primarily to better incorporate the affect of aerosols) and sets the origin point to be the beginning of his regression model (which is nearly 0.2 above the actual measurements for that point in time). It's actually glorious in it's ridiculousness. He has the gall to reset their forecast and then to pick what is for all intents and purposes an arbitrary point to begin the forecast. In reality, even the decreases observed in Monckton's cherry-picked statistics still fit within the predictive capabilities of all the IPCC models, beyond the first iteration. What didn't fit was the massive over-heating observed in 1998 (see link in part d)

d) and probably most importantly, global prediction is for long term not year over year. Even UKmet (one of the three sources cited by Monckton) predicted in 2007 that the colder temperatures they were observing were due to relative deflating from 1998's El Nino seen here http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/promet... and that that would continue until 2010 when they predict a rapid increase in global temperatures, due to, you guessed it, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEoHz56jW...

I guess in hindsight this still ended up more of a diatribe than a quick dissection. I guess the real quick dissection is that Monckton wouldn't know science if it bit him the ass and anyone that quotes him as a reputable source of information doesn't either.