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By Mr. Meister (anonymous) | Posted November 01, 2008 at 11:10:09
You are absolutely right $50 Billion was a totally wrong number.
Calgary's new west extension is about 7.5 KM long and the estimate before construction begins is $716 million or pretty close to $100 million per KM. I believe this is just construction costs and does not include rolling stock. That's an extension to an existing system. Start up costs would likely be higher. Eastgate to University Plaza is about 16 KM. Using Calgary's numbers that would mean a pre-build estimate of $1.6 billion. If the west termination point is McMaster then the estimate drops to $1.4 billion for 14 Km. When was the last time a project that big came in on budget? Calgary has a population of just over 1 million about double that of Hamilton. Calgary covers an area of about 750 square Km compared to Hamilton's 1,100 square Km. Are you starting to see the difference? Transit feasibility is all about population and distance.
Transit fares in Hamilton are less than $2 a ride if you buy a ticket, something easily done, and if rates go up by $0.10 or $0.15 to help pay the shortfall everybody's worried ridership will decline like it does every time there is an increase. Hamilton currently funds the HSR about $30 million a year, half of its budget. What would the ongoing annual cost of a new system be? How can we afford it?
I've been accused of being a pessimist. I am not. I am however a realist and I believe in reality not “pie in the sky wishful thinking.” I just cannot figure out where your hatred for cars comes from? You don’t need to like cars but you must respect them.
Years ago the city built Copps on the same assumption, "If you build it they will come" just like the movies. How has that worked out for Hamilton? How much money has it sucked out of our pockets? Remember Natural Gas buses? How much did that cost us to convert to Natural Gas? How much to convert back? How much money did that suck out of our pockets? Examples of "Pie in the sky" ideas that we can't afford.
You moved to Toronto while thousands are trying to leave. Why are they leaving? They want more affordable housing, for many it’s cheaper to live elsewhere and commute. Many people do not want to live in apartments or condos this, way of the future, you predict. Some are happy living the condo lifestyle but, most people still want a house. I don’t see that changing anytime soon. How many new condos have been built in the last 10 years? How many houses? That’s why transit is so expensive. If you can stop the building of new subdivisions and force them to build condos instead in a few years we would have the population density to make more transit viable.
The reason you do not answer my questions is because many have no answer. It’s all about the money and we just cannot afford these huge pie in the sky money sucking projects.
I wish there was a realistic alternative to buying expensive gas but I suspect reasonable mass transit is not it. Maybe an electric car is in my future.
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