Peak Oil

Peak Oil for Saudi Arabia?

By Ryan McGreal
Published April 29, 2006

At yesterday's Peak Oil presentation to Hamilton City Council, Richard Gilbert mentioned a little-reported event that may mark the day that the earth tipped past its oil production peak.

Amazingly, a search of news reports turned up virtually nothing. I eventually tracked down the original report from Platts Oilgram News: Saudi Aramco announced on April 10, 2006 that Saudi Arabia's mature oilfields "are expected to decline at a gross average rate of 8 percent a year without additional maintenance and drilling."

The Aramco spokesperson explained that the company is attempting to offset those declines with "remedial activities" including drilling new wells in existing fields and opening up new fields.

But get this: the spokesperson went on, "This maintain potential drilling in mature fields combined with a multitude of remedial actions and the development of new fields, with long plateau lives, lowers the composite decline rate of producing fields to around 2 percent."

The last time I checked, a two percent decline is still a decline. If this is correct, then Saudi Arabia may be past its peak in oil production. Saudi Arabia is responsible for approximately one eighth of the world's oil; as Saudi Arabia goes, so goes the world.

Ryan McGreal, the editor of Raise the Hammer, lives in Hamilton with his family and works as a programmer, writer and consultant. Ryan volunteers with Hamilton Light Rail, a citizen group dedicated to bringing light rail transit to Hamilton. Several of his articles have been published in the Hamilton Spectator. He also maintains a personal website and has been known to post passing thoughts on Twitter @RyanMcGreal.

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By anonymous (anonymous) | Posted April 30, 2006 at 15:24:51

Yes I have read that article on energy bulletin .net. I am happy to see another canadian is aware of peak oil. It will be nice to have someone to talk about this with.

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By norme2 (anonymous) | Posted April 30, 2006 at 15:54:22

In November, 2005, Chris Skrebowski presented at the World Oil Conference in Denver, CO. Thought peak would be no later than 30 months, maybe sooner. That was before the news about peaking in the Mexican Cantarell field and Kuwait's Burgan field. The Saudi announcement seals our fate. Seems we are now starting the ride down the energy curve. Get your money into energy, precious metals, land, tools, books that teach skills. Politicicos will probably be clueless for another year or so.

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By jim (anonymous) | Posted April 30, 2006 at 21:15:59

i guess you have read robert hirsch's report to us government. i read it at www.projectcensored.org the not knowing is killing me. how do you prepare? if know one else is preparing you might as well not prepare either because the hoards will devour everything.

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By anonymous (anonymous) | Posted May 01, 2006 at 07:32:34

Ive read the hirsh report, but cant remember where. I think that we are partly prepared because at least we know about this. I live in a rural area so we are making a large garden to start with. How did you first find out about peak oil for the first time. I was given the heads up from a local politician to see the end of suburbia dvd.

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By Aramco employee (anonymous) | Posted May 01, 2006 at 09:14:59

Saudi Arabia still has 260 BILLION barrels of oil of proven reserves. Don't expect a decline in your lifetime. There are oil fields still undeveloped taht are much larger than the Alaska wildlife area.

These types of articles are wishful thinking.

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By Ryan (registered) - website | Posted May 01, 2006 at 09:23:49

Dear Aramco employee: If Saudi Aramco has all these vast untapped oilfields, then why is it going to such herculean lengths to squeeze more production out of the aging and declining Ghawar, Safaniya, Abqaiq and Berri fields? Basic market incentives virtually require a company with such options to grab the low-lying fruit first.

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By MB (registered) | Posted May 01, 2006 at 10:26:45

Aramco employee,

You of all people should know that reserves do not equal rate of production. Just because the oil is probably there does not mean it can be extracted at a rate sufficient to meet demand growth...

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By Tony (anonymous) | Posted May 01, 2006 at 20:06:12

To the Mystery ARAMCO employee:

SA has promised to raise production above the current production level for several years now to no avail. And the only excess capacity they have provided has been in the form of heavier, sour crude. Are you stating that SA has light, sweet crude to offer above current production levels? If so, where are they coming from? Gawhar isn't producing this qualiy of crude at increasing levels.

My belief is that SA has not peaked in total oil poduction but has in light, sweet crude. And the 260 Billion barrel URR is political not geological. Anyone who has studied this issue knows that nealry all OPEC members raised their URR in the mid 1980s to up their production quotas. 30 years of true scientific study had SA reserves at 1/2 the currently stated levels before the political increase.

If you have some facts share them, all we want is the truth, not propoganda.

Tony

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By Tony (anonymous) | Posted May 01, 2006 at 20:31:45

To the Mystery ARAMCO employee:

SA has promised to raise production above the current production level for several years now to no avail. And the only excess capacity they have provided has been in the form of heavier, sour crude. Are you stating that SA has light, sweet crude to offer above current production levels? If so, where are they coming from? Gawhar isn't producing this qualiy of crude at increasing levels.

My belief is that SA has not peaked in total oil poduction but has in light, sweet crude. And the 260 Billion barrel URR is political not geological. Anyone who has studied this issue knows that nealry all OPEC members raised their URR in the mid 1980s to up their production quotas. 30 years of true scientific study had SA reserves at 1/2 the currently stated levels before the political increase.

If you have some facts share them, all we want is the truth, not propoganda.

Tony

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By Reid Vinette (anonymous) | Posted May 01, 2006 at 21:08:09

May 1, 2006

Iranian oil and the nuclear crises - All the pieces are coming together.

Hybrids are going to be more popular than ever. This year while researching for a story on fossil fuels for
my son, I discovered some very startling things. My search on fossil fuels lead to Peak Oil, which
lead to US oil depletion in 2010, which lead to world wide oil depletion in 2030, which lead to the
biggest story of the year and that was the US government and US military involvement in Sept 11, 2001.

Dramatic events are beginning to unfold in the United States with regards to our oil depletion problem.
In 2010 the domestic oil reserves in the United States will be exhausted and we will be depending 100%
on foreign oil. The only problem with this is that the three major supergiant oil fields the United States
depends on have peaked as of March 18, 2006. Saudi Arabia’s supergiant Ghawar oil field has peaked
as of 2004-07-30. Kuwait's supergiant Burgan oil field has peaked as of 2005-11-12. And Mexico’s
supergiant Cantarell’s oil field has peaked as of 2006-03-18. The supergiants’ oil field production will fall
by 6%-8% per year. There will not be enough oil to meet worldwide demand. Beginning this year in
2006 – 2010 oil shocks created by oil shortages will begin to sweep through the industrialized countries
of the world. These include the United States and Canada.

Peak Oil - (Hubbert's curve) has been passed as of 2000-2001.

The United States government will do what ever is necessary to secure what abundant oil reserves are
left on the planet. Those include Iraq, Iran, and Central Asia.

Time Line of Events

1. The US government becomes aware of an impending domestic oil shortage in the late 1970s
when it is confirmed that Hubbert’s Peak has been reached for domestic oil production. At this
time Hubbert’s Curve predicts that domestic oil depletion will occur in 2010. The United States
government has 30 years to come up with a solution to a very serious future problem.

In the year 2000 the US Congress listens to a report called, Life After the Oil Crash. It is a
very sobering report on future oil shortages in the United States and the effects on the
economy. The crises time line begins in 2006 – 2010.

2. US government needs control of Afghanistan for an oil pipeline to go down through
Pakistan to the Indian Ocean. This pipeline will be used to move oil from Central
Asia. Turkmenistan, Caspian Basin, etc.

Afghanistan is the geographical key for an oil pipeline to bring Central Asian oil down
through Pakistan to the Indian Ocean. Besides the Persian Gulf, Central Asia has the
most abundant oil reserves on the planet. (Caspian Basin, Turkmenistan, etc) During
the 1980s the United States government (+ others) trained and armed Afghanistan
freedom fighters to drive out the occupying USSR military. It was important to drive the
USSR out because the United States needed the strategic area.

3. US government needs additional easy to extract light crude oil, which is available in
the Persian Gulf. Iraq and Iran have the other two largest reserves in the world,
which they do not yet control.

Iraq is crucial to the short term prosperity of the United States, because it has the
third largest oil reserves on the planet. After the Gulf War, the United States spent nine
years destroying Iraqi military assets to ensure an easy military attack, invasion, and
occupation. Saddam Hussein was not going to willing share Iraqi oil with the US and so
the US Government had to go in and essentially cease it for our domestic use.
(Not to mention all the damage Saddam Hussein did in Kuwait.)

4. In order to launch military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq to over throw local
governments the United States government needs to get Americans on board and
supportive along with World opinion. The big event to do the trick is a huge
terrorist attack on 9/11/2001 by foreign terrorists. The World Trade Centers, World
Trade Center #7, the Pentagon, and the White House are targeted by the United
States government in co-operation with the United States military. The World Trade
Center Towers and World Trade Center #7 are destroyed to satisfy several
objectives. 1. To blame terrorists. 2. For the gold bullion $160 billion. 3. Destroy
financial records of Wall Street and stock market manipulations. 4. Wall Street
company executives are aware of the planned domestic attack and try to further
their gain by placing put options on all of the airlines worth $100 million. The World
Trade Center Towers and World Trade Building 7 are brought down in a controlled
demolition by none other than Controlled Demolition, Inc.

Thermite Identified As Culprit Of WTC Collapse
http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/april2006/240406thermiteidentified.htm

5. The population of the United States and the World are horrified. President Bush
and the United States government have the approval and the money they need to
go to war against the terrorists in Afghanistan and Iraq. Of course there really
aren't any terrorists, just a massive looming oil shortage for the United States.

6. Afghanistan is secured and then Iraq. The story for Iraq is a tie in to Afghanistan
and weapons of mass destruction. Once the Iraqi oil fields are secure the US
government can breath a little easier. They now have the third largest oil reserve
in the world to supply oil to the United States economy and Canada.

Both Afghanistan and Iraq are key to secure oil reserves for the United States
economy to keep everything humming along for a few more years.

7. The next oil rich country the United States government needs to control is Iran.
Iran has the 2nd largest oil reserves in the world with light crude oil. (The Alberta
Tar Sands do not count as the oil is to expensive to extract in volume) There are
only 24 years of oil supply left in the world, 15 if consumption increases to meet
China's growing demand at 8% a year. The United States government needs
to control Iran's oil fields in order to ensure the continued health of the United
States economy and to a lesser extent Canada.

8. Iran realizes that it is in the United States crosshairs for annexation. With the help
of Russia and China its armed forces are significantly fortified and nuclear
technology begins development. Under the guise of civilian applications the
program begins. For its very survival Iran needs to develop nuclear weapons as a
deterrent to a US lead invasion force. Russia and China co-operate because they
need the Iranian oil exports for their own developing countries. Oil = economic growth
and economic stability.

9. The United States cannot tolerate Iran developing nuclear weapons because this
becomes a very real military threat to the United States military forces in the area.
Annexation of Iran would be much more difficult with the threat of a potential hostile
nuclear attack on the 5th fleet in the Persian Gulf. It would be devastating and may
lead to the destruction of oil tankers heading out of the Persian Gulf to the United
States.

10. To have more control militarily in the area (Persian Gulf) the United States
government and the United States military begin to equip Israel and Turkey with
the latest advanced weapon systems, including delivery systems capable of
supporting low yield nuclear weapons, which will be required to annex Iran by
destroying their military assets, especially the nuclear facilities.

With between 200 and 500 thermonuclear weapons and a sophisticated delivery
system, Israel has quietly supplanted Britain as the World's 5th Largest nuclear
power, and may currently rival France and China in the size and sophistication of
its nuclear arsenal. Israel has also received 5,000 Bunker Buster Bombs from
the United States. Many of these may be tipped with low yield nuclear warheads.
The target for these weapons is Iran.

11. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran's President finds out about the weapons being stock
piled in Israel and Turkey and is very angry. There may also be a religious angle,
which is beyond the scope of this text. He knows that Israel and Turkey are
conspiring with the United States to annex Iran for their oil reserves. Hence
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran's President's extreme anger towards Israel.

12. In order to maintain a military balance of power between Iran and the United
States, Russia and China are working around the clock to help upgrade Iran’s
military defenses. This includes nuclear weapons technology and missile
technology. The Iranian military is now in possession of the Sunburn anti-ship
missile, which now renders the American naval fleet in the Persian Gulf defenseless
if they decide to attack Iran.

This balance of power is essential to save thousands if not millions of lives.

13. Domestic oil reserves in the United States will be depleted in 2010. At this time the
United States economy will be 100% dependent on foreign oil. The only problem with
this is that the three major supergiant oil fields the United States depends on have
peaked as of March 18, 2006. Saudi Arabia’s supergiant Ghawar oil field has
peaked as of 2004-07-30. Kuwait's supergiant Burgan oil field has peaked as of
2005-11-12. And Mexico’s supergiant Cantarell’s oil field has peaked as of 2006-03-18.
The supergiants’ oil field production will fall by 6%-8% per year. There will not be
enough oil to meet worldwide demand. Beginning this year in 2006 – 2010 oil
shocks created by oil shortages will begin to sweep through the industrialized countries
of the world. These include the United States and Canada.

14. By 2030 all easily accessible world oil reserves will be depleted and the industrial world
as we know it will come to an end.

15. The United States government is trying to delay their inevitable economic collapse
as long as possible. As a country the United States needs to begin to prepare itself
and evolve other ways of transportation, products, and domestic survival not dependent
on oil. Oil is not going anyway; it is just going to become very scarce.

The United States government will never admit to this unfolding crises, because it may
destabilize the country. Neither will this news be carried in mainstream media due to
government censorship. This is for your information only.

Supporting documentaries

Netflix.com Movies:
The End Of Suburbia
Loose Change 911 2nd edition
The Oil Factor

Key supporting articles are:

After the Oil Crash
http://www.aftertheoilcrash.net
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/SecondPage.html

Report by Peak Oil Netherlands
http://www.peakoil.nl/images/ponlreport.pdf

Oil Depletion Home Page
http://www.gulland.ca/depletion/depletion.htm

Peak Oil Forum in World Watch
http://www.peakoil.net/wwm_jan_2006.html

Association for the study of Peak Oil & Gas
http://www.peakoil.net/

The Countdown for the Peak of Oil Production
http://www.energybulletin.net/2544.html

THE PARADIGM IS THE ENEMY:
The State of the Peak Oil Movement at the Cusp of Collapse
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/042706_paradigm_speech.shtml

Greatest Oil Reserves By Country
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0872964.html

Saudi Arabia’s Supergiant Ghawar Oil Field has Peaked – 2004-07-30
Ghawar is the largest oil field in the world.
http://www.energybulletin.net/1269.html

Peak Oil for Saudi Arabia? – 2006-04-11
http://www.raisethehammer.org/blog.asp?id=220
http://www.platts.com/Oil/News/8377179.xml?sub=Oil&p=Oil/News&?undefined&undefined

Kuwait's Supergiant Burgan Oil Field starts to run out of oil – 2005-11-12
http://www.kuwaittimes.net/localnews.asp?dismode=article&artid=37595069
http://www.energybulletin.net/10782.html

Mexico’s Supergiant Cantarell’s Oil Field has Peaked – 2006-03-18
http://www.raisethehammer.org/index.asp?id=269
http://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/mld/myrtlebeachonline/news/nation/14116129.htm

Staring Down the Barrel of an Oil Crisis
http://www.energybulletin.net/4044.html

Loose Change 911 2nd Edition
www.loosechange911.com

Thermite Identified As Culprit Of WTC Collapse
http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/april2006/240406thermiteidentified.htm
http://www.rense.com/general70/whitehot.htm
Bush challenges hundreds of laws. President cites powers of his office
(A United States President who is out of control)
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2006/04/30/bush_challenges_hundreds_of_laws?mode=PF

Nuclear War Against Iran
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=%20CH20060103&articleId=1714

Planned US-Israeli Attack on Iran
http://www.globalresearch.ca/articles/CHO505A.html

Israeli Weapons of Mass Destruction: a Threat to Peace
http://www.globalresearch.ca/articles/STE203A.html

Prominent US Physicists Call Nuclear Weapons against Iran Gravely Irresponsible
Letter to President Bush
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=20060421&articleId=2308

The Sunburn - Iran's Awesome Nuclear Anti-Ship Missile
The Weapon That Could Defeat The US In The Gulf
http://www.rense.com/general59/theSunburniransawesome.htm

Moskit SS-N-22 Sunburn
http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/missile/row/moskit.htm

Day One – The War With Iran
http://www.rense.com/general69/dayone.htm

Global Online Resources For Information
(US News sources are heavily censored and full of propaganda.
It’s best to get your news from multiple sources around the world.
ie USAToday.com = USATodayGovernmentPropoganda.com)

Iran News Watch
http://www.irannewswatch.com/

Global Research
http://www.globalresearch.ca/

Iran Daily
http://www.iran-daily.com/

Iran Atom
http://iranatom.ru/indexen.html

Daily Times Pakistan
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/

News 24 – South Africa
http://www.news24.com/News24/World/Home/0,,2-10,00.html

China View - xinhuanet
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/

Russia News
http://russianews.net/

New Zealand World News
http://www.stuff.co.nz/world_news.html


Conclusions

The United States is now at Peak Oil with regards to its three largest contributing supergiant
oil fields. What does this mean with regards to oil production looking out to the year 2010.
After reaching Peak Oil production an oil field has a general rate of decline between 6%
and 8% a year. It takes one year to establish the fact that an oil field is in decline. When an
announcement is made declaring an oil field is in decline, it has already been in decline for
an entire year.

United States – Domestic oil fields
Decline started in 1970-1971. By 2010 US oil fields will be depleted.
2010 – 1970 = 40 years (2.5% * 40 years) = 100%

Saudi Arabia – Ghawar supergiant oil field – decline announced July 30, 2004
Decline started in July 2003. By 2010 Ghawar oil production will drop 42% - 56%.
2010 – 2003 = 7 years (6% * 7 years) to (8% * 7 years)

Kuwait – Burgan supergiant oil field – decline announced Nov 11, 2005
Decline started in Nov 2004. By 2010 Burgan oil production will drop 36% - 48%.
2010 – 2004 = 6 years (6% * 6 years) to (8% * 6 years)

Mexico – Cantarell supergiant oil field – decline announced March 18, 2006
Decline started in March 2005. By 2010 Cantarell oil production will drop 30% - 40%.
2010 – 2005 = 5 years (6% * 5 years) to (8% * 5 years)

Average oil production decline by 2010 for the three supergiant oil fields will be
between 36% to 48%.

@ 6% = (42% + 36% + 30%) / 3 = 36%
@ 8% = (56% + 48% + 40%) / 3 = 48%


Summary

By 2010 the United States will be refining 36% - 48% less crude oil due to oil shortages
caused by oil field depletion. Americans and Canadians alike need to prepare for an oil
crises of unprecedented magnitude beginning in 2006 and worsening to 2010 and beyond.


Follow-up

Please do not take my word on what is written here. Do your own research and investigate.

If you find this news important please share it with a friend. It is so important that people
find out what is really going on. The media will not cover this. The government will not tell
you.

It is up to people to educate each other and become aware of what is really going on.

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By Tom (registered) | Posted May 03, 2006 at 07:48:22

Reid,

Nice summary post. As our economies are set up to best run on 2-3% expansion per year, a decrease of available cheap energy will necessarily provoke a recession that will grind on and on until things get worse. We're going to have to develop an alternative to the "expand or die" motif for our businesses and everything else.

One small detail on your depletion examples. Your depletion calculations are a tad off because a constant "rate" does not apply to the original number, but to the successive remaining amounts.

An example: a 10% annual depletion rate starting from 100 units. First year you lose 10 (10% of 100). Now you have 90 units left. Second year you lose 9 (10% of 90) and you have 81 units left. Third year you loose 8 units (8.1 actually) and you have 73 units left. Etc.

So a 2.5% depletion rate will not yield 0% remaining in 40 years (as in your calculation 2.5% x 40). Instead it will leave about 37% of the original amount.

It helps - but only marginally. Our economies are not geared to run backwards.

Again - nice summary, especially the links and references.

Cheers,

Tom

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By Ryan (registered) - website | Posted May 09, 2006 at 09:07:23

Further to Tom's point about the depletion rate, here's a graph plotting a 2.5 percent per year decline: http://www.raisethehammer.org/decline.ht...

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By reidvinette (registered) | Posted June 08, 2006 at 03:03:34

June 7, 2006

The world is now at Peak Oil for the United States with the five supergiant oil fields supplying this country now in decline as of March 16, 2005. It takes one year to realize an oil field is in decline.

Beginning on March 16, 2006 the energy crises for the United States began ... or did it.

If there is an energy crises, it is a crises which has been created by the oil companies and industrial governments like the United States and Canada.

There is an energy solution to power modern day vehicles and it is called on demand water fracturing into hydrogen and oxygen.

www.waterpoweredcar.com www.waterfuelcell.org

This technology is so powerful that industrial governments are trying to keep a lid on it.

Why?

Money.

Industrial governments cannot tax the water it takes to fill your water tank in your car.

Oil companies cannot profit from the sale of water it takes to fill your water tank in your car.

Discover water fracturing technology and begin experimenting in your garage.

The energy crises I believe is a myth now.

Water fracturing technology can preserve valuable oil for petro-chemical products, and agricultural uses. Water fracturing technology can be used for vehicle transportation, and energy to power electrical generating plants now dependant on natural gas.

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By reidvinette (registered) | Posted June 10, 2006 at 00:38:06

Ryan and Tom

Thank you for the corrections on my oil depletion figures. They were just quick and dirty to get the point across and to satisfy my own curiosity. I will be incorporating your data into my email letter to the PTA Groups across the US and Canada.

Reid Vinette

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By Ryan (registered) - website | Posted June 10, 2006 at 11:33:02

Hi reidvinette,

It's always important to remember that percentage changes are always subject to the fact that the base changes before the next iteration.

As for your post about water power, I've replied elsewhere, but here's another summary:

This is almost certainly a hoax. Stanley Meyer, the inventor behind the water fuel cell, was convicted of "gross and eggregious fraud" in swindling his investors.

Water certainly does contain hydrogen, and hydrogen certainly does contain energy, but converting energy from one form to another always carries a net energ loss.

A water powered car would have to use electrolysis to separate the hydrogen and oxygen, and electrolysis is very energy intensive. Quasi-scientific descriptions about inducing vibrations simply begs the question: what energy will you use to produce the vibration?

Finally, big corporations would be delighted to get their hands on a cheap, abundant energy source. That's why we use petroleum so widely in the first place.

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By luis (anonymous) | Posted October 09, 2006 at 14:04:13

@ Reid Vinnete

I lifted my eyebrows reading your comment at this line:

"The World Trade Centers, World
Trade Center #7, the Pentagon, and the White House are targeted by the United
States government in co-operation with the United States military."

... and I stop reading at this one:

"The World
Trade Center Towers and World Trade Building 7 are brought down in a controlled
demolition by none other than Controlled Demolition, Inc."

Just tell me. Are all the videos showed LIVE in the news also a fake enterprise?!? Missing occupants in the planes and the planes themselves were just "bought" over for a "play-act"? "Excuse me, are u willing to make a part in a movie? i'll pay u 2 million and you... die." Are all the phone calls phoney? Interesting. But clumsy. And with a total lack of evidence, worthwile of the worst kind of conspiracy theories.

Wich doesn't give much heralded credit to your brain for the rest of your "news".

And HEY I aint the powers that be and all other hype-for-your-paranoia-sake. I'm just an ordinary guy who knows what is oil-peak and can't take the exxageration-nerds anymore.

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By dionpranav p. (anonymous) | Posted March 11, 2011 at 03:59:06

The constant rise in the national average fuel price all but guarantees it will hit $4 a gallon by summer. Gas prices have been increasing, because of unrest in Middle Eastern nations and Libya slowing oil exports and driving the cost of oil up. Should the market prove unable to curb cost instability, the American government has stated it is open to tapping its oil reserves to calm the sector.

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